Recently, at the USA–China summit in Beijing, China’s Premier Xi Jinping mentioned that he hoped that both parties, the United States and China, could avoid the ‘Thucydides Trap’.
This refers to an article and a book by the well-known Harvard political scientist Graham Allison that presented a paradigm that if you have an established power and it gets worried about an ascending power, the established power will attack it.
Allison called this the Thucydides Trap because the Greek historian Thucydides, who lived between 460-400 B.C. wrote a history of the Peloponnesian War.
In it, he suggested that Sparta was afraid of the dominance that was growing throughout the Greek world, and so it staged a preventive war by invading Attica, the country around Athens, in 431 B.C.
Allison’s research at the Harvard Kennedy School analysed 16 historical cases where a rising power had challenged a ruling power over the past 500 years. Strikingly, 12 of these 16 rivalries resulted in war.
However, he and many political leaders have stressed that the Thucydides Trap is a warning that rising tensions make conflict more likely – but that it can be avoided.
Xi Jinping was referencing Allison’s book because it claimed that the USA might do something rash and attack China. Xi was claiming that the USA is worried about China’s increasing power and influence.
As highly respected military historian Victor Davis Hanson pointed out in a recent podcast, when you review the major criteria that denote whether a superpower is strong or in decline, China appears to be the one that has the problem – not the USA.
For example, the fertility rate is 1.7 in the USA but only 1.0 in China; the latter’s population is shrinking as well as getting older.
Oil production and fuel – the stuff that empires are made of: the USA is the largest producer of gas and oil in the history of civilization. China has to import 70% of its oil.
Food: USA is the biggest exporter in the world, and the value of its agricultural products is unmatched. China, as it gets more affluent, has tastes that have diverged, and it is importing 30% of its food.
Nuclear power: the USA is the greatest civilian user of nuclear power, and is ahead in fusion nuclear power.
In terms of military power, the USA has 6,000-7,000 nuclear weapons. China has 600-700.
Nuclear aircraft carriers and carrier groups: China has three carrier groups while the USA has 11.
Combat aircraft: the USA has considerably more high-quality aircraft.
Overall, China is experiencing fundamental problems in relation to fertility, finance, debt, energy, and food. Many of its people are also unhappy with the communist regime and this is leading to political instability.
While the USA also has its problems, basically in every barometer of cultural, social, military, and political power, the USA overshadows China.
The USA is a free society: Its Constitution is older and more stable. Eight of the top 10 companies in the world by market capitalization are American.
One American produces on average 40% more GDP than four of his/her Chinese counterparts.
So, the idea that the USA is worried because it is losing influence or power to China is clearly nonsense.
More importantly, when an emerging power and an establishment power have a confrontation, it is not the establishment power that usually starts the conflict – it is the emerging one.
Germany was flattened after World War I. It recovered, wanted to challenge the British Empire, did so, and lost World War II.
Imperial Japan attacked the United States in 1941 – a much more industrial and powerful country – and it lost.
In the Cold War, the Soviet Union was wrecked during World War II and wanted to challenge the USA, the global hegemon. The USA won the Cold War.
More importantly, when you have ongoing tension between a rising power and an establishment power, it doesn’t always lead to war.
War is not inevitable. And if it happens, it is not the establishment power that usually starts it – it is the upstart, and the upstart usually loses.
So, what does this mean for the Chinese–American relationship?
How will their fundamental differences be resolved?
Taiwan is clearly a major issue. It seems highly unlikely that the Taiwanese government will acquiesce to China’s demands after it has witnessed what the Chinese Communist Party has done in Hong Kong, Tibet and Mongolia and to the Uyghurs in Xinjiang, and Falon Gong adherents.
Only time will tell what the outcome will be. China may back off and leave the situation as it is – but that seems unlikely if Xi Jinping stays in power.
In terms of power balance, the USA is part of NATO and also has alliances with Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, India, Mexico, Australia and New Zealand.
China has Russia, North Korea, and what is left of Iran.
So, the balance of economic power and military deterrence favours the USA and its allies – but only if the latter start pulling their weight militarily.
In relation to Xi Jinping’s recent speech in Beijing, it’s clear there is no Thucydides Trap.
And even if it did apply, the USA would be unlikely to start a war, it would more likely be started by China and its allies.
Leading China Analyst, Gordon Chang, agrees with Hanson’s views.
He said that while Xi Jinping tries to present the USA as a declining power and China as an ascending one, the reality is that China faces severe problems such as a declining population, weak economy, and a military in disarray after a series of purges.
However, he warns that “Xi Jinping has been beating the crap out of us (the USA) in the information warfare space, and that’s our fault.”
With that in mind, Xi’s speech shouldn’t surprise anyone who understands how these power play issues are handled.
It suits the Chinese Communist Party to promote the idea that they are the rising power and that the USA is on the decline.
It’s great propaganda – and communists have always been very good at disseminating misleading or false information to shape public opinion and behaviour.
But, in this case, it’s patently untrue.
Hopefully, for all our sakes, China will curtail its crazy ‘long march’ towards world domination and learn to live in peace with its neighbours and the USA.
No-one ever really wins a major war – and certainly not if it turns nuclear.
Hopefully, Xi Jinping will really act as a partner and friend to the USA
This article includes a segment of the Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words podcast that was then published in The Epoch Times. The original article appeared inThe Daily Signal, a publication ofThe Heritage Foundation. Images have been added courtesy of Facebook and Instagram.
