Name a single foreign policy decision as successful as Maduro’s capture.
The other day Newsweek ran an article titled Trump Was Right. Six Months Post-Maduro, Venezuelan Recovery Defies Critics. The cover art deliberately recalls colonial era depictions of Cecil Rhodes bestriding Africa, a nod towards standard leftist disapproval even in a generally positive piece.
The presence of an article in Newsweek praising Trump must be considered somewhat akin to a a balaclava wearing Islamic terrorist releasing a video where he praises Israel. On orders of probability, I’d confidently predict a greater chance of being struck by lightning or winning the lottery.
Other than Robert Reich declaring that he’s accepted a post in the Trump administration there must be few things more unlikely than a Trump foreign policy decision receiving a fair analysis in any part of mainstream media. That alone makes the decision to publish such a piece notable.
It would be naive to imagine that a sudden outbreak of honesty is behind the shift. It’s far more likely that the forces that were absolutely fine with Communist dictatorship destroying Venezuela now see some benefit to themselves in its recovery.
Speaking of that recovery, I want to share a telling example of the nature of AI enquiries when researching something. I asked an AI search engine for information on Venezuela’s improvement since Maduro was captured. Here was the initial AI response:
“Venezuela’s economy has not recovered six months after the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, with locals reporting that conditions remain dire and basic necessities are even more expensive. Despite the U.S. taking control of oil sales and promising investment, food shortages persist, electricity and gas supplies are unreliable, and oil revenues are not reaching the population.
Key ongoing challenges include:
- Persistent Hardship: Families face makeshift stoves, frequent power outages, and water shortages, with the economy remaining in a state of deep uncertainty and paralysis.
- Oil Control: The U.S. administration has moved to control Venezuela’s oil sales indefinitely, holding proceeds in U.S. Treasury accounts, which has raised concerns about the lack of immediate financial relief for Caracas.
- Continued Inflation: The Venezuelan Bolivar has weakened significantly, and inflation remains high, constraining purchasing power despite some initial stabilization efforts like dollarization.
- Infrastructure Decay: The power grid and industrial sectors remain in disrepair, requiring massive investment that analysts say is years away from materializing.
While some legal reforms have opened sectors to private investment, the humanitarian crisis continues, with millions of citizens still living in poverty and the healthcare system in total disrepair.”
So anyone asking this particular AI whether Venezuela is improving receives a very firm and definitive initial ‘no’. The picture presented is as if the removal of Maduro has had no positive effect at all.
Having previously read a few detailed articles on the recovery of Venezuela’s oil industry I knew this picture to be false. It may obviously be true that a nation as destroyed and mismanaged as Venezuela was will recover gradually, and that many hardships will persist in a nation whose people were recently starving. But the unremittingly bleak picture offered by the AI response rang false.
So I queried it, and directly said it wasn’t true. In reply to that, this is the second response I got:
“You’re right, and I apologize for the one-sided framing. There are clear, measurable improvements. Here’s what has actually changed:
Oil sector
- Production surged from ~489,000 bpd in December 2025 to 1.25 million bpd by May 2026 — up 61% year-on-year.
- Exports to the U.S. averaged 329,500 bpd, up 192% from the 2025 average.
- 50 million barrels sold since the capture; oil revenues are projected to hit $22.1 billion in 2026, the highest since 2018.
- Chevron expanded its Orinoco Belt stake to 49%; Repsol agreed to resume operations and triple production; ConocoPhillips is exploring a return.
Sanctions & international reintegration
- OFAC issued General License 50A (Feb 2026), authorizing BP, Eni, Shell, and Maurel & Prom to operate alongside Chevron.
- Sanctions lifted on the Central Bank and three state-owned commercial banks, restoring dollar transactions frozen since 2019.
- The IMF and World Bank resumed formal relations in April 2026 after a seven-year freeze — a major credibility signal for investors.
- The U.S. diplomatic mission was reestablished; Iberia and American Airlines resumed flights to Caracas.
Legal & structural reforms
- A new Hydrocarbons Law dismantled the Chávez-era state monopoly, opening the sector to private operators, foreign investment, and production-sharing agreements.
- A new Mining Law and an electrical grid law were passed, allowing foreign capital into those sectors.
- A Commission for the Evaluation of Public Assets was created to audit and potentially privatize state holdings in agriculture, manufacturing, and infrastructure.
Macroeconomic indicators
- Monthly inflation fell from 33% in January to 11% in April 2026 (annual rate dropped from 649% to 612% over the same period).
- The IMF projects 4% real GDP growth for 2026; some estimates go as high as 12%.
- The monthly minimum income package was raised to $240 in May.
Political & security
- Political prisoners are being released; exiles are considering returning; foreign embassies are reopening.
- Cuban and Iranian influence has been reduced; territorial control has been partially regained from criminal networks.
The fair summary is that Venezuela is no longer falling — the trajectory has genuinely shifted. But the baseline is still catastrophic (GDP is ~80% below its 2013 peak, inflation is the world’s highest, and daily life for most remains hard), so the improvements are real but early-stage.”
As you can see, this is a remarkable transformation. A firm ‘it’s all terrible’ becomes a ‘yes there are significant improvements in an early stage’. The ones that stand out are the reduction of inflation and predictions of very healthy GDP growth. These will definitely improve Venezuelan lives, and if maintained for an extended period gradually return the nation to a functioning status.
Of course the capture of Maduro and the Trump administration relationship with the new post-Maduro government was not primarily motivated by a desire to save the Venezuelan people. It was motivated by firm US interests in stopping Venezuelan Cartel Communism flooding the US with fentanyl, and by the need to counteract Chinese expansion in the Americas. Venezuela was a key Chinese ally and a puppet state following Chinese orders. Countering US decline and Chinese expansion is the connective tissue of every Trump foreign policy move.
Today it is fashionable to pretend that a pragmatic interests based foreign policy is wicked and evil, that it means conquest and exploitation. In reality, it is the basic assumption of any competent foreign policy platform. If you aren’t looking to extend and expand your own interests, what on Earth are you doing in charge of a nation state in the first place?
With Venezuela, Trump seems to have delivered a golden example of the benefits of self interested, nationalistic foreign policy. He has successfully countered decades of Chinese spending, policy and planning. The capture of Maduro was executed flawlessly and showed what US forces are capable of. And the oil relationship estsblished with Venezuela turns a Chinese asset into an American one. The utility of this is clear:
“Venezuela is currently providing the United States with approximately 500,000 barrels of oil per day, which represents about 40% of the country’s total national output of 1.25 million barrels.
In a specific initial tranche announced in January 2026, Venezuela agreed to transfer 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., valued at roughly $2.8 billion, which was sold at market prices.
Looking toward long-term strategic reserves, a historic agreement announced in August 2026 grants the U.S. majority control over 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in Venezuela through a joint venture with the private operator North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP). This deal targets a production increase to 1.5 million barrels per day over a 25-year period, with the U.S. securing the right to purchase 20% of the output at cost.”
Simply as a thing viewed in isolation this would be a remarkable and indeed astonishing return on the outlay of a 35 minute single military operation, and would mark the decision to green light the operation as one of the best single decisions in US history. Compare the Venezuelan raid and its returns with neocon long wars or with failed Cold War major conflicts such as Vietnam. Compare it with the outlay wasted on Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Libya. And understand too that the Venezuelan move was part of an astonishingly effective geopolitical strategy where every element is planned and interconnected.
One of the most amusing fallacies of mainstream coverage of Trump foreign policy is the idea that under his guidance the US is blundering around the globe from one crazy scheme to another. It would be pitifully childish to believe such an image, but many voters do. Members of my own family have approached me with the idea that Trump is a madman who just does whatever crazy notion occurs to him, moving from one war to another like some kind of snorting bull in a china shop. This is an understanding, or rather a lack of understanding, assiduously cultivated by globalist mouthpieces like The Atlantic and Newsweek.
In truth Venezuela connects to Iran, as well as to a revitalised version of the Monroe Doctrine. It connects to the counteracting and destruction of Chinese alliances and advantages globally. Iran in fact has some hidden successes beyond the immediate ones of preventing a nuclear threat and punishing a sponsor of terrorism. The western reliance on oil producing Muslim nations is being countered, and US energy sovereignty secured, through both the Iranian conflict actually lessening the importance of the straits of Hormuz and Venezuela supplying huge quantities of oil to the US. Nor is it a coincidence that Venezuela produces a kind of oil the US does not.
“Venezuela produces a fundamentally different type of oil than the United States. While the USprimarily extracts light, sweet crude from shale formations that flows easily and is rich in gasoline and diesel, Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven reserves but produces heavy, sour crude.
This Venezuelan crude is thick, dense, and high in sulfur, resembling molasses or tar rather than liquid oil. Because of these physical and chemical differences, it requires complex, specialized refineries—mostly located on the US Gulf Coast—equipped with cokers and desulfurization units to process it efficiently, unlike the simpler refineries that handle domestic light crude.”
Rather than being viewed as bursts of manic megalomania, Trump’s foreign policy should be recognised as pragmatic and sensible. It has actually delivered the most comprehensive, cohesive and beneficial US foreign policy framework in generations. Rather then being neocon forever wars, even the Iranian intervention has been a calculated one, with little loss of US life and potentially profound benefits. But what is least remarked on and most notable is the rationality of these moves-Greenland, Canada, Venezuela, Iran, the Middle East alliances, even the moderate approach on Ukraine-are all interconnected, all moves which methodically go through US weaknesses and Chinese strengths, addressing the first and reducing the second.
And energy control lies at the heart of it. Of the nations with which Trump foreign policy has most engaged, five of them-Iran, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Russia-have some of the largest oil and energy reserves in the world. It’s astonishing really that anyone is simplistic enough to say ‘it’s just about the oil’ as a criticism. The rivals of the US, particularly China, are not shy about their own efforts to control key resources.
And unlike the predictions of chaos from those who DID deliver foreign policy disasters, this methodical countering of China has been extremely successful. The Venezuelan miracle stands out as the most obvious success, but those who cast Iran as a disaster are also getting it wrong there.
Why Newsweek are suddenly prepared to acknowledge a Trump triumph is another matter. Perhaps there is simply some salivation from the publications masters over the prospect of being investors in the Venezuelan recovery. Whatever the motive, it’s a rare instance of the media telling the truth regarding a Trump policy.
This article was first published at Jupplandia.
